Interesting article from Harvard’s Paul Schmelzing:

My $.02?  Transitions from bull to bear markets have occurred gradually over long stretches of time.  In the most recent case, bonds traded sideways from 1936-1956.  It’s okay, then, to play cyclical rallies… even if we’re heading into a secular decline.  An ideal cyclical bottom, in my estimation, targets a move to 3.6% yield on 30-year Treasuries in September 2017.  This would match the average amplitude – price and time – of prior cyclical routs since 1986, and closely approximate the “bond massacre” of 1994.