8 centuries of bond market reversals

Interesting article from Harvard’s Paul Schmelzing:

https://bankunderground.co.uk/2017/01/04/venetians-volcker-and-value-at-risk-8-centuries-of-bond-market-reversals/

My $.02?  Transitions from bull to bear markets have occurred gradually over long stretches of time.  In the most recent case, bonds traded sideways from 1936-1956.  It’s okay, then, to play cyclical rallies… even if we’re heading into a secular decline.  An ideal cyclical bottom, in my estimation, targets a move to 3.6% yield on 30-year Treasuries in September 2017.  This would match the average amplitude – price and time – of prior cyclical routs since 1986, and closely approximate the “bond massacre” of 1994.

By | 2017-01-19T10:15:08+00:00 January 18th, 2017|Categories: Market Strategy Report, Uncategorized|0 Comments

About the Author:

Mark Ungewitter is a Senior Vice President & Investment Officer at Charter Trust Company. He was formerly Director of Portfolio Management at Investors Bank and Trust in Boston, Massachusetts. He holds an M.S. from Bentley University and a B.S. from Massachusetts College of Liberal Arts. He is a member of the American Association of Professional Technical Analysts.

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