The Crash Confidence Index shows the percentage of individuals and institutions who see little probability that the stock market will crash in the next six months.  A lower percentage indicates that more investors expect a crash.  We reached a low in the beginning of 2009, the bottom of the most recent crash.

From there the market rallied.  A contrarian investor, one who goes against the tide, may see this recent low in the index as a bullish sign.  The moment the everyday investor becomes the most bearish can be the moment the market turns and heads higher…or not…just something to think about.