Call me lazy, but my market outlook is essentially unchanged since my Year Ahead report.
Well, perhaps a few updates:
- U.S. equities continue to track an idealized 4-year-cycle. A deep internal bottom in January 2016 suggests a cyclical top in Q3 2018.
- The leading technology sector has not attained bubble trajectory.
- Energy, financials, and small-caps are the worries du jour.
- Crude oil probably completed a major bottom in January 2016.
- U.S bonds probably completed a major top in July 2016, suggesting a cyclical bottom near 3.4% yield on 30-year Treasuries.
- Non-U.S. equities appear to be forming a relative-strength bottom, but more evidence is needed.
Happy summer, everyone.