Technical Perspective – U.S. Equities: Does Valuation Matter?
With growing talk of a new secular bull market, it’s time to take a look at valuation history. While it’s true that “anything can happen” in financial markets, it seems unlikely that a new secular bull market will lift off from a P/E multiple of 17x. It seems more likely, based on prior experience, that price will fall (or earnings rise) before a decade-long multiple-expansion can occur. With that said, it should be noted that SPX could easily run to 1800 before the traditional 20x ceiling is reached. And with Doctor Bernanke at the switch, the old rules are – at least temporarily – in question.