The Year Ahead – U.S. Bonds

Long-term trends and behavioral tendencies likely to influence the U.S. Bond market in 2017

U.S. bonds may have completed a 70-year “super- cycle” in July 2016, with double tops in 10s and 30s, and a global fascination with negative yields.

A move above 4.0% yield on 30s is required to corroborate the secular-bear-market thesis, evidencing the first higher-high since 1981.

Meanwhile, 10 & 30 year bonds are approaching cyclical extremes, worthy of at least a bounce.

Rising yields may not jeopardize the equity bull market, as long as earnings accelerate.

Is this the End of an Era?

 

Modern Analogy…

Two things I don’t understand… negative interest rates and tattoos.

Both have overstayed their welcome, and both will look silly in hindsight.

10s are near cyclical support

30s Are Near Cyclical Support

Rising Yields Don’t Necessarily Harm the Stock Market

Click on the next article in this series

By | 2017-01-05T11:42:58+00:00 January 5th, 2017|Categories: Market Strategy Report|0 Comments

About the Author:

Mark Ungewitter is a Senior Vice President & Investment Officer at Charter Trust Company. He was formerly Director of Portfolio Management at Investors Bank and Trust in Boston, Massachusetts. He holds an M.S. from Bentley University and a B.S. from Massachusetts College of Liberal Arts. He is a member of the American Association of Professional Technical Analysts.

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