A word of caution from market breadth…

Interesting configuration here.  NYSE advance/decline lines corroborated the March 1st high, but the relative strength of SPX versus equally weighted SPX is flashing a warning (Chart 1).  The long-term track record of SPXEW/SPX is mixed, but worth noting (Chart 2). 

NYSE advance/decline lines are the more traditional measure (Chart 3).  And it seems too early for an important top based on the 4-year cycle, which is expected to crest in 2018.  But SPXEW/SPX is demonstrating increased selectivity, a decidedly unhealthy condition.  Perhaps we’re setting up for at least a minor top.  The market’s had a steep run-up, so let’s be cautious here.

 Chart 1. SPX versus NYSE A/D lines (composite & common) and SPXEW/SPX

 

 Chart 2. SPEW-X versus SPX with 20-month average

 

Chart 3. Important tops preceded by narrowing NYSE breadth

By | 2017-03-13T09:50:02+00:00 March 13th, 2017|Categories: Market Strategy Report|0 Comments

About the Author:

Mark Ungewitter is a Senior Vice President & Investment Officer at Charter Trust Company. He was formerly Director of Portfolio Management at Investors Bank and Trust in Boston, Massachusetts. He holds an M.S. from Bentley University and a B.S. from Massachusetts College of Liberal Arts. He is a member of the American Association of Professional Technical Analysts.

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