The Year Ahead – Global Equities

Long-term trends and behavioral tendencies likely to influence the Global Equities market in 2017

One of today’s most glaring inter-market divergences is the relative performance of U.S. versus non-U.S. equities.

For dollar-based investors, non-U.S. stocks have underperformed U.S. stocks by a whopping 50% over the past six years.

Non-U.S. markets have traded sideways for eight years in what is either a giant topping process or a giant base-building process. The eventual resolution of this pattern is likely to set the long-term trend.

Technical conditions continue to favor the U.S., but extreme valuation divergences suggest the possibility of a sea change.

In contrast with U.S. equities, the rest of the world is trading sideways


Europe, developed-Pacific, and emerging-market indices are all trading sideways.

  • All major non-U.S. segments have traded sideways for the past eight  years.

  • No segment has achieved a higher high in currency-adjusted gold terms since the initial bounce off  the panic lows of 2008/9.

Are non-U.S. stocks replicating the post-1974 Dow?

Valuation divergences are extreme… suggesting the possibility of a sea change

Bonus chart… Will China overcome the “Trump” narrative?

Click on the next article in this series

By | 2017-01-05T11:42:01+00:00 January 5th, 2017|Categories: Market Strategy Report|0 Comments

About the Author:

Mark Ungewitter is a Senior Vice President & Investment Officer at Charter Trust Company. He was formerly Director of Portfolio Management at Investors Bank and Trust in Boston, Massachusetts. He holds an M.S. from Bentley University and a B.S. from Massachusetts College of Liberal Arts. He is a member of the American Association of Professional Technical Analysts.

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