Long-term trends and behavioral tendencies likely to influence the Global Equities market in 2017
One of today’s most glaring inter-market divergences is the relative performance of U.S. versus non-U.S. equities.
For dollar-based investors, non-U.S. stocks have underperformed U.S. stocks by a whopping 50% over the past six years.
Non-U.S. markets have traded sideways for eight years in what is either a giant topping process or a giant base-building process. The eventual resolution of this pattern is likely to set the long-term trend.
Technical conditions continue to favor the U.S., but extreme valuation divergences suggest the possibility of a sea change.
In contrast with U.S. equities, the rest of the world is trading sideways
Europe, developed-Pacific, and emerging-market indices are all trading sideways.
All major non-U.S. segments have traded sideways for the past eight years.
No segment has achieved a higher high in currency-adjusted gold terms since the initial bounce off the panic lows of 2008/9.
Are non-U.S. stocks replicating the post-1974 Dow?
Valuation divergences are extreme… suggesting the possibility of a sea change
Bonus chart… Will China overcome the “Trump” narrative?