Our view of the market is qualified optimism. We are committed to challenging our view because markets do not behave exactly as we expect and excessive confidence always leads to trouble. The domestic economy remains in a [...]
Our view of the market is to trust but verify. The current economic and market data is empirically sound but we need to be vigilant to detect anomalies and market failures. Mark Twain once remarked, “It ain’t [...]
Click to view full review - The Year Ahead - 2018
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In a recent report, we argued that the current bull market is more of a business cycle than a political cycle. The volume of “hate mail” in response to this heresy suggests we are on the right track. We based [...]
Ever notice that Wall Street analysts are a lot like sports announcers? Both chatter continuously no matter what the action on the field. In a quiet moment, for example, you might hear a baseball announcer exclaim “The last time a [...]
Interesting article from Harvard’s Paul Schmelzing: https://bankunderground.co.uk/2017/01/04/venetians-volcker-and-value-at-risk-8-centuries-of-bond-market-reversals/ My $.02? Transitions from bull to bear markets have occurred gradually over long stretches of time. In the most recent case, bonds traded sideways from 1936-1956. It’s okay, then, to play cyclical rallies… [...]
From Larry Jeddeloh of TIS Group: MSCI has been considering adding Chinese equities to their benchmark indexes for a long time, and just got done with another review [April 2016] wherein they decided to keep the A-shares out for now. But, how [...]
Long-term trends and behavioral tendencies likely to influence U.S. Equities in 2017 U.S. equities entered a secular bull market in 2013, breaking out above a 13-year range in dollar terms, and staging a bona-fide reversal in gold terms. A [...]
