Cincinnati Financial Corp (CINF) has been performing well above the fair value range since 2014. Expectations for the company remain well above reality and even after adjusting the fair value range upward to adjust for improved economic conditions the stock moved dramatically to the upside in January. This took the stock from the very top of the fair value range to a level that is now 155% FV. Even with a nice dividend of 2.9% and a 11% return YTD, we have become increasingly concerned that expectations are over the top.

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Cincinnati Financial