Call me lazy, but my market outlook is essentially unchanged since my Year Ahead report.

Well, perhaps a few updates:

  1. U.S. equities continue to track an idealized 4-year-cycle. A deep internal bottom in January 2016 suggests a cyclical top in Q3 2018.
  2. The leading technology sector has not attained bubble trajectory.
  3. Energy, financials, and small-caps are the worries du jour.
  4. Crude oil probably completed a major bottom in January 2016.
  5. U.S bonds probably completed a major top in July 2016, suggesting a cyclical bottom near 3.4% yield on 30-year Treasuries.
  6. Non-U.S. equities appear to be forming a relative-strength bottom, but more evidence is needed.

Happy summer, everyone.